Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e45…1f67 tech 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$14
politics 21% −$4
sports 17% −$3
economics 14% −$2
tech 10% +$51
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +2.4% -7.3% 34% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$607) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage212d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $106 +$2 +2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $875 −$6 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $880 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $884 −$6 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $886 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $604 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 14 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $607 −$2 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $608 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $236 +$1 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $118 +$1 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $113 +$5 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $69 +$3 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $550 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $104 +$6 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $77 +$4 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $48 +$2 +5%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $19 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $103 20m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $104 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $106 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $106 28d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $869 35d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $875 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $871 35d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $873 35d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $874 35d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $878 35d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $880 35d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $878 35d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $884 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $884 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $886 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $109 58d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $603 64d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $603 64d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $603 64d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $604 64d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $604 64d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $604 64d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $604 64d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $605 64d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $605 64d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $607 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records