Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e42…4938 weather 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+24%) realized +$99 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 33L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$50
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$94
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +11.2% +0.6% 40% 38% +6.0%
≤30d 64 +15.5% +4.5% 48% 45% +6.6%
≤90d 64 +15.5% +4.5% 48% 45% +6.6%
all 64 +15.5% +4.5% 48% 45% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 45% +6.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 33% -3.6%
15% -14.6% 28% -12.9%
20% -23.0% 25% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 85¢ $8 $21 +$14 (+183%)
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? No 45¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$16 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$7 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$10 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$6 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$20 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$9 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$10 +353%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$13 +652%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$21 +233%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 41¢ $6 54m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.77 · official $35.77 (match) · 372 history records