Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e41…5a1c other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+3%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 38L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$54
world 34% +$3
politics 10% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 3% −$7
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 31% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 57 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 4% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -6.3%
10% -16.8% 4% -15.3%
15% -24.9% 2% -23.5%
20% -32.2% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.68 per $1 lost it wins $5.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage305d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $62 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $28 +$3 +10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $29 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 06 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 31 $9 −$6 -64%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 30 $9 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $41 +$53 +130%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $16 $0 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 20 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 24 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 23 $8 −$2 -20%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 +4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 21 $2 $0 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $30 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $33 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $33 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $12 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records