Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9e40…1945 crypto 438 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate66%284W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$25
14 days−$51
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$173
sports 17% +$118
world 8% −$112
other 4% −$113
politics 1% +$53
economics 0% −$12
culture 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +8.2% -2.1% 63% 63% -11.6%
≤30d 76 -12.4% -20.7% 49% 47% -17.1%
≤90d 415 +3.3% -6.5% 67% 20% -10.9%
all 433 +1.0% -8.6% 66% 20% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 20% -11.0%
10% -17.3% 18% -19.5%
15% -25.3% 12% -27.3%
20% -32.6% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses284 / 149
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)433 / 438
History coverage108d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $146 −$145 -100%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$10 +33%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $38 +$11 +30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $144 +$18 +13%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $31 +$9 +27%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $48 +$12 +26%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$9 +31%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Jun 24 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 24 $17 +$2 +12%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $12 +$8 +73%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 +$10 +26%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $14 +$12 +86%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $122 −$28 -22%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $8 +$31 +392%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 +$9 +59%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $41 +$9 +21%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$2 -35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $17 +$7 +39%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $4 +$6 +146%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $18 +$6 +35%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 +$7 +31%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +136%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $17 −$4 -25%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 18 $27 −$5 -18%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $0 $0 +124%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -17%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $29 −$25 -88%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $174 −$173 -99%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul) Jun 12 $0 $0 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $145 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 10h
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $13 38h
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 39h
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 39h
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $11 39h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 72¢ $15 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $125 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 86¢ $38 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $60 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $84 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 79¢ $48 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $31 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 85¢ $22 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 85¢ $12 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY No 39¢ $16 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.61 · official $31.61 (match) · 2366 history records