Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e3d…4815 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-51%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$13
other 40% −$12
sports 2% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -72.3% -74.9% 20% 20% -63.5%
≤30d 5 -72.3% -74.9% 20% 20% -63.5%
≤90d 15 -59.6% -63.5% 27% 7% -61.7%
all 15 -59.6% -63.5% 27% 7% -61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.5% 7% -61.7%
10% -67.0% 0% -65.4%
15% -70.2% 0% -68.7%
20% -73.1% 0% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage70d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 07 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 07 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 07 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 07 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL Yes $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes $1 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records