Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e3b…7a52 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$4
other 33% +$2
politics 7% −$2
finance 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -7.7% -16.5% 7% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 14 -7.7% -16.5% 7% 0% -10.4%
all 44 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.0%
10% -19.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.6% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $58 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? Jun 22 $19 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 22 $4 +$7 +180%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +20%
Israel strike on Iran on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? Mar 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $12 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $15 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $27 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $15 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $15 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $26 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $27 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $27 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $22 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $23 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $28 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records