Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e38…1b52 sports 626 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,116 (-9%) realized −$9,151 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%212W / 414L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$1,482est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$43
30 days−$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$8,097
crypto 3% −$109
other 2% −$537
finance 0% −$19
tech 0% −$17
weather 0% −$3
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +55.1% +40.4% 60% 60% -11.0%
≤30d 16 +17.3% +6.2% 44% 44% -47.8%
≤90d 443 -6.3% -15.2% 31% 31% -19.5%
all 626 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 34% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 34% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 33% -26.0%
15% -28.4% 32% -33.1%
20% -35.4% 31% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$151 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$9,151
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses212 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$1,482
Open positions1
Markets (closed)626 / 626
History coverage102d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ 26¢ $220 $255 +$35 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aix en Provence: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 15 $244 −$244 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $90 +$185 +206%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Jun 15 $55 +$32 +58%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $7 +$11 +146%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $19 +$40 +209%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $35 +$36 +102%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $22 +$51 +230%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $34 −$34 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $104 −$102 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $238 −$238 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $101 +$229 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $285 −$280 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $235 −$235 -100%
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Samuel Linde May 13 $35 −$34 -97%
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez May 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Paris: Yulia Putintseva vs Veronika Podrez May 13 $19 −$19 -97%
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kokoro Isomura May 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Cordoba: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Miguel Tobon May 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo May 12 $38 −$37 -97%
Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter May 12 $50 −$48 -98%
Bengaluru 2: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray May 12 $60 −$59 -98%
Bengaluru 2: Omar Jasika vs Hamish Stewart May 12 $55 +$55 +99%
Bengaluru 2: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Philip Sekulic May 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Paris: Alina Korneeva vs Katie Volynets May 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova May 10 $72 −$70 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 10 $33 +$127 +388%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner May 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Istanbul: Donna Vekic vs Guiomar Maristany May 09 $141 −$141 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren May 09 $274 −$269 -98%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs En-Shuo Liang May 09 $198 +$223 +113%
Jiujiang: Xinxin Yao vs Xiaodi You May 09 $465 −$456 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perri May 08 $271 −$264 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 08 $200 −$195 -98%
Santos: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Miguel Tobon May 08 $776 −$762 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva May 08 $266 +$508 +191%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Noemi Basiletti May 08 $469 −$456 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Aleksandar Vukic May 08 $738 −$730 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $462 −$56 -12%
Francavilla: Ryan Seggerman vs Jay Clarke May 08 $316 +$464 +147%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Aleksandar Kov May 08 $813 −$803 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $286 −$282 -99%
Istanbul: Alice Tubello vs Polina Kudermetova May 08 $502 +$1,726 +344%
Wuxi: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Akira Santillan May 08 $600 −$587 -98%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Xinxin Yao May 08 $315 +$584 +185%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $561 −$46 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $33 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $3 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $3 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $6 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $2 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $14 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $28 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $56 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $71 8m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 22¢ $5 8m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $264 29m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $2 29m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $6 29m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Bruno Fernandez 49¢ $2 29m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 16¢ $90 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $0 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $1 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $10 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $3 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $1 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $18 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $11 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $10 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $8 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $10 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 28¢ $1 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava SELL Zoziya Kardava 38¢ $13 1h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava BUY Zoziya Kardava 18¢ $55 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 26¢ $18 25h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 40¢ $7 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.99 · official $254.99 (match) · 3111 history records