Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e32…0cd3 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% $0
world 31% +$2
politics 22% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 0% -8.9%
all 41 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage299d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $62 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $34 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $61 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $32 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $32 +$1 +4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Sep 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 14 $35 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 08 $2 $0 -11%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $28 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $1 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $32 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $7 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $25 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $8 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $23 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $31 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $31 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $30 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $15 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.04 · official $34.04 (match) · 162 history records