Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e30…02a0 sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-2%) realized −$104 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%100W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$18
other 4% −$62
crypto 1% −$18
politics 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 43 -13.1% -21.4% 63% 60% -17.9%
≤90d 167 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 59% -11.7%
all 167 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 59% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 59% -11.7%
10% -17.5% 53% -20.2%
15% -25.4% 41% -27.9%
20% -32.7% 31% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses100 / 67
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage62d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 76¢ $18 $36 +$18 (+101%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $81 −$81 -99%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $61 +$20 +32%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $49 +$13 +26%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 May 24 $69 −$69 -99%
RS Berkane vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 May 24 $91 +$29 +32%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 24 $75 +$15 +20%
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $58 +$18 +30%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $48 +$9 +20%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 May 24 $32 +$12 +38%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? May 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $99 −$98 -98%
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $98 −$97 -99%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 23 $167 +$31 +18%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 May 23 $137 +$29 +22%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 23 $109 +$28 +26%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 May 23 $87 +$22 +25%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 May 23 $72 +$15 +20%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $59 +$13 +23%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-8.5) May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $44 +$25 +57%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 172.5 May 23 $35 +$8 +24%
ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 3.5 May 22 $28 +$8 +28%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 22 $18 +$9 +52%
CSyD Macará vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 1.5 May 22 $91 −$90 -99%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 21 $51 +$33 +64%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $53 −$52 -98%
Lillestrøm SK vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 3.5 May 20 $78 +$34 +44%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $99 −$98 -99%
Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club: O/U 1.5 May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Club Always Ready vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5 May 20 $101 +$53 +52%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $101 +$44 +43%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $195 +$26 +13%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $165 +$45 +27%
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $5 +$7 +129%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 1.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5 May 16 $10 +$5 +48%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 May 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 14 $25 +$19 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $18 1h
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes $13 22d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes $5 22d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 22d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $81 23d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 23d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $61 23d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 23d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $49 23d
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $69 23d
RS Berkane vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 23d
RS Berkane vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $91 23d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $90 23d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $75 23d
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $76 23d
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $58 23d
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 23d
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $48 23d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes $1 23d
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 23d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 23d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 23d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $32 23d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 23d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 23d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 49¢ $99 23d
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $98 24d
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $197 24d
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $167 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.77 · official $35.77 (match) · 299 history records