Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e2f…a1b2 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 50% -18.9%
≤30d 8 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 50% -18.9%
≤90d 8 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 50% -18.9%
all 8 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 50% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 50% -18.9%
10% -12.7% 50% -26.7%
15% -21.2% 50% -33.7%
20% -28.9% 38% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records