Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e2d…c271 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 21% +$2
politics 20% $0
finance 7% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 8% -10.1%
≤90d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 8% -10.1%
all 42 +2.2% -7.5% 29% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -16.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage317d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $40 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $66 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $42 −$3 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $62 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 06 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $39 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $40 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 34h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $40 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $35 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $35 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $40 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $42 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.88 · official $40.88 (match) · 125 history records