Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e25…57c7 other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,376 (-9%) realized −$5,036 · open +$660
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$22,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,564
7 days−$1,846
14 days−$1,851
30 days−$1,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2,570
world 26% +$250
culture 14% −$3,399
crypto 3% +$836
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -53.6% -58.0% 0% 0% -63.4%
≤30d 3 -69.0% -72.0% 0% 0% -63.5%
≤90d 34 -90.3% -91.2% 3% 3% -39.9%
all 59 -52.7% -57.2% 24% 12% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.2% 12% -28.8%
10% -61.3% 5% -35.6%
15% -65.0% 2% -41.8%
20% -68.5% 2% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$143 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$22,872
Realized−$5,036
Unrealized+$660
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)59 / 87
History coverage152d
Avg bet$586
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $2,324 $2,494 +$170 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $1,675 $2,290 +$615 (+37%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,850 $2,287 +$437 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,220 $2,077 +$857 (+70%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $601 $1,893 +$1,292 (+215%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,604 $1,594 −$10 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,952 $1,591 −$361 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,318 $1,142 −$176 (-13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,390 $1,104 −$286 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $696 $844 +$148 (+21%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $944 $841 −$103 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $792 $810 +$18 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,113 $767 −$346 (-31%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,361 $717 −$645 (-47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $641 $602 −$38 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $914 $540 −$374 (-41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $550 $487 −$63 (-11%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $698 $443 −$255 (-36%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $128 −$32 (-20%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $60 −$60 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $58 −$58 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $46 $41 −$5 (-11%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $19 −$10 (-34%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,850 −$1,564 -84%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,247 −$282 -23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Apr 12 $171 −$171 -100%
Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "I Like It" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 12 $195 −$195 -100%
Will "Neverita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Apr 12 $2,980 +$316 +11%
Will "Me Porto Bonito" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Callaita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Efecto" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "Safaera" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Ojitos Lindos" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "PERRO NEGRO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "La Santa" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "La Jumpa" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Yonaguni" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $15 −$6 -40%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 02 $4,294 −$3,715 -86%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $3 −$1 -33%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $79 +$10 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $100 +$14 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $1,303 +$118 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $634 +$20 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $394 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 08 $150 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 08 $100 +$15 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $3,523 −$57 -2%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Feb 05 $100 −$5 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 05 $300 −$2 -1%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 03 $100 −$9 -9%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 03 $150 −$25 -17%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $2,732 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $297 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $286 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $235 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $236 4d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $120 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $76 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $47 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $721 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $965 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $131 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $195 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $232 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $127 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $126 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $201 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $205 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $262 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $182 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $168 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $148 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $147 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 14d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $599 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $820 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,872.19 · official $22,876.97 (match) · 505 history records