Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e22…63ad crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$588 (-9%) realized −$550 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$46
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$57
crypto 29% −$647
politics 2% +$30
sports 1% +$10
other 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 9 -11.3% -19.7% 44% 33% -7.3%
≤90d 53 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 38% -20.2%
all 56 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 39% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 39% -20.1%
10% -30.3% 27% -27.8%
15% -37.0% 23% -34.8%
20% -43.2% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$63 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized−$550
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage106d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $600 $536 −$64 (-11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 92¢ $120 $140 +$20 (+17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $300 −$37 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $400 +$12 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $500 +$89 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 −$97 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $400 −$366 -92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$514 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $151 +$30 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 10 $30 +$68 +227%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $112 +$5 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 04 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 02 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 01 $40 +$29 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 01 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $137 +$43 +32%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $130 −$129 -99%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 28 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 27 $140 +$26 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 27 $30 +$24 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 25 $50 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 25 $40 +$100 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $44 +$19 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 24 $50 +$48 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 24 $30 +$31 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 24 $131 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $263 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $600 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $300 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $412 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $400 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $589 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $903 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $34 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $814 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $300 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,000 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $500 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $181 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $400 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $120 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $100 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $180 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $98 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $113 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $60 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 75d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $117 75d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $112 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.70 · official $787.73 (match) · 129 history records