Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9E 0x9e21…233e other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,850 (+21%) realized +$2,064 · open −$214

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%7W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$876per market

Trades / day11.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+49.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+65.2%	+49.5%	100%	100%	+29.1%
≤30d	7	+65.2%	+49.5%	100%	100%	+29.1%
≤90d	7	+65.2%	+49.5%	100%	100%	+29.1%
all	7	+65.2%	+49.5%	100%	100%	+29.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.5 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+49.5%	100%	+29.1%
10% ← realistic here	+35.2%	86%	+16.7%
15%	+22.1%	57%	+5.5%
20%	+10.2%	57%	-4.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +65% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$450 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$786

Realized+$2,064

Unrealized−$214

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses7 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$876

Trades / day11.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	49¢	38¢	$1,000	$786	−$214 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,508	+$298	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$306	+$492	+161%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,014	+$581	+29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$506	+$327	+65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$986	+$1,076	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$767	+$221	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$300	+$157	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1,015	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,806	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	44¢	$305	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$2,508	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,595	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	77¢	$2,014	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	18¢	$51	9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	38¢	$306	9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$506	9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,062	25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$986	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$988	28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$767	30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$457	31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$300	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $785.71 · official $1,135.71 · 18 history records