Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9e1c…b3ab sports 328 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,350 (-1%) realized −$5,344 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%163W / 154L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,292per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$3,382est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$9,680
other 21% −$16,673
world 1% −$1,766
crypto 1% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.9% -4.2% 75% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 71 -13.2% -21.4% 41% 34% -27.8%
≤90d 317 -9.2% -17.8% 51% 43% -11.5%
all 317 -9.2% -17.8% 51% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 43% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 32% -19.9%
15% -32.9% 22% -27.7%
20% -39.4% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,091) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$715 vs −$816 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$3,982
Realized−$5,344
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses163 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$3,382
Open positions11
Markets (closed)317 / 328
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,292
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,330 $2,330 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $979 $981 +$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? No 98¢ 97¢ $307 $306 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 Mexico? No 98¢ 98¢ $299 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Brazil? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Brazil? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,406 +$204 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 21 $469 −$176 -38%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $176 −$6 -3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $5,428 +$1,227 +23%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $303 +$56 +18%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $59 +$6 +10%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1,308 −$1,308 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $459 −$459 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $158 +$57 +36%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $216 −$2 -1%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $1,204 +$525 +44%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $216 −$97 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $137 −$118 -86%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1,384 −$1,345 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $35 +$449 +1290%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $57 +$52 +92%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $405 +$25 +6%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $401 −$65 -16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2,382 −$13 -1%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 02 $266 −$266 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $6,072 −$6,072 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $160 +$36 +23%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $542 +$182 +34%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8,048 +$1,952 +24%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 01 $726 +$274 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $121 +$261 +216%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Singapore win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,371 +$256 +19%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,520 +$1,480 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $123 +$56 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $221 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $980 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? BUY No 98¢ $308 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 Mexico? BUY No 98¢ $299 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $880 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $1,126 2h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $1,406 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 32h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $71 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $2,799 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $410 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $492 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $330 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 81¢ $178 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $39 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $200 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $320 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $17 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $88 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 80¢ $8 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,981.51 · official $3,982.18 (match) · 1385 history records