Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9e17…4836 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$88 (-8%) realized +$172 · open −$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$55
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$10
politics 26% −$210
world 8% +$67
sports 4% +$25
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.9% -1.5% 73% 59% -0.6%
≤30d 32 +17.8% +6.6% 66% 56% -0.9%
≤90d 34 +19.9% +8.5% 65% 56% +6.3%
all 34 +19.9% +8.5% 65% 56% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 56% +6.3%
10% -1.9% 50% -3.9%
15% -11.4% 44% -13.2%
20% -20.1% 32% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage69d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $110 $82 −$28 (-25%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $237 $4 −$233 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $108 +$8 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$5 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $161 +$3 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$19 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$29 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$23 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +174%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +360%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $51 +$23 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 19 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? Apr 19 $63 +$70 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $161 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.14 · official $87.74 · 89 history records