Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e15…903d crypto 1151 markets active 7d ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$373 (-1%) realized −$373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%503W / 648L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 42% -37.6%
≤30d 136 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 38% -20.9%
≤90d 1151 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 42% -18.1%
all 1151 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 42% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 42% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 41% -25.9%
15% -35.2% 39% -33.1%
20% -41.6% 35% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses503 / 648
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1151 / 1151
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1151 Trades
no open positions (215 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $47 −$41 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$12 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $38 +$24 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $79 −$70 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $28 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$22 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$11 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$21 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $40 +$32 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $12 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $31 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 29 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $47 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 29 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $26 −$4 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records