Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e13…f55c world 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%34W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$19
other 22% −$3
politics 18% −$1
sports 13% +$1
culture 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$13
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 25 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 76 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 3% -10.0%
all 117 -1.0% -10.5% 29% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses34 / 83
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage273d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $119 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $188 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $63 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $194 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $269 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $70 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $84 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $66 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $72 −$7 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $126 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $59 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $80 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $220 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $178 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $155 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $146 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $146 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $50 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $77 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $58 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $61 9h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $3 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $61 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $60 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $59 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $60 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $61 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $60 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $60 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $59 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $65 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $65 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $59 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $59 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $22 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $33 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.13 · official $60.38 (match) · 481 history records