Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e13…00ec sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+6%) realized +$38 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%68W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$38
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$33
world 19% +$10
politics 19% −$1
sports 15% +$4
crypto 6% −$8
economics 5% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.5% -19.0% 67% 17% -2.5%
≤30d 28 +16.0% +4.9% 75% 46% +0.3%
≤90d 68 -9.1% -17.8% 57% 31% -11.5%
all 110 -2.5% -11.7% 62% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 29% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 16% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 12% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses68 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions24
Markets (closed)110 / 134
History coverage177d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? No 65¢ 86¢ $65 $86 +$21 (+32%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $67 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by July 1, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will CBLOL (Brazil) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage No 87¢ 98¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will LCP (Asia-Pacific) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage No 82¢ 98¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will LEC (Europe / EMEA) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage No 81¢ 95¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will Top Esports make a roster change before July? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? No 53¢ 63¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Yes 51¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 78¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +9%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $23 +$3 +12%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 +7%
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +127%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$5 +212%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $1 $0 -2%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2 +$2 +111%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $13 −$13 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 07 $3 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 07 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9AM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 23 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Champio Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 23 $3 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 23 $5 $0 +7%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 23 $5 +$6 +122%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 23 $15 +$14 +90%
Will KT Rolster make a roster change before July? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $5 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $43 23h
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $8 3d
Will LEC (Europe / EMEA) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Kn BUY No 81¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $4 3d
Will CBLOL (Brazil) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockou BUY No 87¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will LCP (Asia-Pacific) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Kno BUY No 82¢ $16 3d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? SELL No 58¢ $4 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? SELL No 58¢ $29 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? SELL No 60¢ $44 3d
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $20 3d
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knoc BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 3d
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $101 3d
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 4d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $9 4d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.94 · official $447.94 (match) · 417 history records