Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e0d…1516 crypto 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$129 (+4%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate95%279W / 14L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$90
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 +3.7% -6.2% 96% 24% -7.0%
≤30d 293 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 27% -6.8%
≤90d 293 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 27% -6.8%
all 293 +4.2% -5.7% 95% 27% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 27% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -15.7%
15% -23.0% 2% -23.9%
20% -30.5% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses279 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)293 / 294
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 94¢ 94¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $17 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.83 · official $16.83 (match) · 598 history records