Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e03…d995 sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-3%) realized −$102 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%70W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$11
other 11% −$19
tech 11% −$101
world 5% +$10
finance 4% +$7
politics 3% +$5
economics 2% +$2
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.1% -46.7% 50% 50% -16.9%
≤30d 2 -41.1% -46.7% 50% 50% -16.9%
≤90d 78 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 44% -10.6%
all 89 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 42% -13.3%
10% -18.5% 20% -21.6%
15% -26.4% 9% -29.2%
20% -33.6% 3% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses70 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)89 / 96
History coverage99d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 63¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $35 +$6 +18%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$5 +474%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 10 $47 +$3 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Valentin Royer May 07 $10 +$3 +32%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $48 +$2 +4%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $30 +$11 +38%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Apr 26 $36 +$4 +12%
Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 5? Apr 26 $45 +$2 +5%
Kings vs. Flames Apr 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Busan: Alex Bolt vs Rio Noguchi Apr 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Canucks vs. Oilers Apr 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Busan: Yunchaokete Bu vs Adam Walton Apr 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 20 $15 +$1 +10%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 20 $30 +$3 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 20 $115 +$16 +14%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 16 $62 +$7 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 16 $120 +$10 +8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $40 +$6 +16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 15 $16 −$3 -18%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Apr 10 $80 +$6 +7%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 10 $15 +$2 +15%
Sharks vs. Ducks Apr 10 $20 +$4 +18%
Jets vs. Blues Apr 10 $30 +$1 +5%
Predators vs. Utah Apr 10 $30 +$3 +9%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chun-Ting Wong vs Yuanyu Chen Apr 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Apr 08 $15 +$3 +18%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $40 +$1 +3%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 08 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $70 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 72¢ $68 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 64¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $71 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 37¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $30 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $30 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $110 3h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 30d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 35d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 96¢ $5 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $50 50d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Valentin Royer BUY Hamad Medjedovic 75¢ $10 53d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 63d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Los Angeles Angels 80¢ $10 63d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 63d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Los Angeles Angels 75¢ $20 63d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 64d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina BUY Qinwen Zheng 43¢ $20 64d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 84¢ $10 64d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Penguins 80¢ $10 64d
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros BUY Colorado Rockies 88¢ $110 73d
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros BUY Colorado Rockies 77¢ $5 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.56 · official $302.42 (match) · 234 history records