Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9dff…623b
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$45
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $52 −$4 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $77 +$3 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 02 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 31 $18 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 28 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $1 $0 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 27 $1 $0 -29%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $18 +$1 +7%
New Epstein names released by Friday? Mar 11 $18 $0 +2%
Blue Jackets vs. Panthers Mar 05 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 05 $7 −$5 -70%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 05 $17 +$1 +8%
UMass Lowell vs. Maine Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Samford vs. VMI Mar 03 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 27 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% $0
other 10% +$2
crypto 8% +$2
sports 8% +$4
politics 7% $0
weather 4% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 35h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 44h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 46h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $48 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $44 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $31 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $45 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $17 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $5 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $22 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -9.0%
10% -20.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.24 · official $45.24 (match) · 105 history records