Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9dfe…8caf
crypto · 30 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$45 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 3 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +138%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% −$37
crypto 40% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 33% -57.9%
≤30d 27 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 33% -57.9%
≤90d 27 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 33% -57.9%
all 27 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 33% -57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 33% -57.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 33% -61.9%
15% -23.9% 33% -65.6%
20% -31.3% 30% -69.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.12 · official $12.12 (match) · 61 history records