Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9dfe…3a5d sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$228 (+1%) realized +$203 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$425
7 days−$1,209
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$349
other 10% +$384
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -22.3% -29.7% 39% 39% -18.9%
≤30d 117 -15.6% -23.6% 41% 41% -9.5%
≤90d 117 -15.6% -23.6% 41% 41% -9.5%
all 117 -15.6% -23.6% 41% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -9.5%
10% -30.9% 41% -18.1%
15% -37.6% 41% -26.0%
20% -43.7% 41% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$129 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 69
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage12d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 31¢ 34¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $102 +$98 +97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $203 +$142 +70%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 +$111 +109%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$95 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $304 +$251 +83%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$71 +70%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 +$262 +129%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $203 +$112 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $203 −$203 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $203 +$262 +129%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $202 +$137 +67%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $304 +$296 +97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $204 −$200 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $203 +$189 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 +$116 +114%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $306 +$426 +139%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $203 +$142 +70%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $510 +$708 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $344 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $102 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $168 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $101 3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 46¢ $102 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 46h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 46h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 32¢ $102 46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 85¢ $173 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.26 · official $325.29 (match) · 216 history records