Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9dfb…e887 world 476 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$189 (-0%) realized −$163 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate75%353W / 117L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$376
14 days+$1,150
30 days−$1,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$491
other 28% +$264
sports 10% +$11
politics 8% −$76
finance 3% +$151
crypto 1% +$46
tech 0% −$11
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.4% -28.8% 71% 43% +0.4%
≤30d 68 -10.9% -19.4% 69% 40% -10.7%
≤90d 405 +10.4% -0.1% 74% 36% -7.8%
all 470 +9.1% -1.3% 75% 36% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 36% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 18% -16.6%
15% -19.4% 11% -24.7%
20% -27.3% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$55 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2,424
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses353 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)470 / 476
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$211
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $583 $580 −$4 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $481 $482 +$1 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $409 $409 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $316 $320 +$3 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $193 $193 −$0 (-0%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $184 $189 +$5 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 64¢ $161 $135 −$26 (-16%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $122 $116 −$6 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in March? Jun 22 $21 −$19 -91%
Will Trump say "N Word" in March? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $184 +$5 +3%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $375 +$17 +4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $663 +$97 +15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $460 +$58 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $739 −$274 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,176 +$501 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $789 +$111 +14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$28 -51%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 15 $332 +$64 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $1,054 +$290 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 15 $58 +$10 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $55 +$15 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $318 +$91 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $404 +$28 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $288 +$38 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $120 +$27 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $378 +$61 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $68 +$23 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $311 −$237 -76%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $81 +$37 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $334 +$46 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $76 −$10 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $87 +$4 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $92 +$6 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $133 −$21 -16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $134 +$26 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $531 +$53 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $487 +$80 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $694 +$56 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $94 +$5 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $171 +$23 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $38 +$34 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $129 −$115 -89%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $92 −$43 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $303 +$7 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $110 −$69 -63%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 03 $86 +$11 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $58 +$33 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $553 +$111 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,708 +$50 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $692 +$65 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $623 −$351 -56%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 31 $173 +$28 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $87 −$86 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $744 −$263 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $780 +$33 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $541 −$304 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $24 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $190 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $184 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $193 3h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $374 3h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 7h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $61 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $7 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $11 10h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $62 10h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 11h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 11h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $58 11h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $216 11h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $381 14h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $261 14h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 26h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $258 26h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 31h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 31h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $185 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $391 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $482 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $316 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $193 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,423.73 · official $2,423.32 (match) · 3500 history records