Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9dfa…3d6c crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$49 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%45W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$30
14 days−$36
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$31
crypto 8% $0
other 3% −$20
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.5% -20.0% 61% 39% -5.5%
≤30d 69 -2.7% -12.0% 59% 48% -12.8%
≤90d 76 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 47% -12.9%
all 78 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 46% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 46% -14.8%
10% -24.3% 33% -23.0%
15% -31.7% 26% -30.4%
20% -38.4% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses45 / 33
Open positions16
Markets (closed)78 / 94
History coverage171d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? No 87¢ 85¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+245%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $111 +$17 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$17 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 8? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $87 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 47h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $71 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $149 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $35 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $66 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $110 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 70¢ $26 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.59 · official $115.59 (match) · 191 history records