Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9df3…ddfc other 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,389 (-2%) realized −$3,541 · open +$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%203W / 210L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$1,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$621
7 days−$693
14 days−$745
30 days−$1,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$3,327
world 7% −$655
economics 0% −$275
sports 0% −$5
finance 0% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.4% -33.4% 57% 57% -19.0%
≤30d 38 -27.5% -34.4% 47% 45% -21.2%
≤90d 128 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 48% -11.8%
all 413 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 38% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 28% -19.8%
15% -39.1% 19% -27.5%
20% -45.1% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$221 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$1,152
Realized−$3,541
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses203 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)413 / 417
History coverage158d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $300 $361 +$61 (+20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 61¢ 90¢ $200 $294 +$94 (+47%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$100 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $410 +$67 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,314 +$351 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $525 +$125 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $304 +$121 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $806 +$132 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $304 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,005 +$98 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,007 +$128 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $204 −$143 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $304 +$57 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 08 $204 +$152 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 08 $508 +$213 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $415 +$616 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $193 −$185 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $74 −$71 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $207 −$200 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $205 +$48 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $31 +$6 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $155 +$248 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $2,007 +$105 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $63 +$68 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $608 +$211 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $176 +$902 +511%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $1,004 +$77 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $514 −$164 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,120 +$470 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $52 +$42 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $207 +$218 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $313 −$271 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1,036 −$25 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $302 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $204 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $205 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $175 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $204 35h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1,009 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $305 42h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $203 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $204 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $79 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $571 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $504 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $303 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $502 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $304 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $205 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.59 · official $1,151.62 (match) · 1479 history records