Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9def…d1a5
world · 140 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
+$19,668 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,262 · open +$1,863
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9,670
Realized+$18,262
Unrealized+$1,863
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses51 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions7
Markets (closed)133 / 140
Avg bet$1,848
Trades / day54.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 7 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,666
7 days−$1,268
14 days+$18,365
30 days+$15,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $2,239 $3,426 +$1,188 (+53%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 63¢ 74¢ $1,900 $2,220 +$320 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1,460 $1,345 −$116 (-8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 41¢ 60¢ $875 $1,277 +$402 (+46%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $542 $526 −$16 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $460 $516 +$56 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $330 $360 +$30 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $4,714 −$1,009 -21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +43%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 11 $268 +$30 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $584 −$33 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $249 −$102 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $153 −$88 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $190 −$71 -37%
Chirayu Rana sued? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 11 $242 −$23 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 11 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? Jun 11 $898 −$477 -53%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $430 −$108 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $129 +$4 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $331 +$302 +91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $150 +$8 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $256 −$43 -17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $310 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $77 +$103 +134%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 09 $738 +$17 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,250 +$47 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,005 +$243 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $18 −$12 -64%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64,017 +$8,480 +13%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $489 +$269 +55%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $2,644 +$4,707 +178%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $28,672 +$6,217 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $53 −$52 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $137 +$12 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3,369 −$950 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,440 −$1,121 -78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $1,205 −$476 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 18 $675 −$33 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 10 $54 +$6 +10%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 10 $939 −$633 -68%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $489 −$488 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 10 $252 −$64 -26%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $373 −$348 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 09 $10,572 −$1,343 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 09 $900 −$300 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $1,306 −$216 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $2,177 −$402 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 07 $180 +$15 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $482 −$120 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 07 $2,339 −$480 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 07 $940 −$540 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 07 $6,164 −$293 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $598 −$129 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 07 $3,031 −$235 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 41% +$17,989
finance 25% +$8,862
world 20% −$7,246
other 4% −$157
sports 4% −$1,615
tech 3% +$1,917
politics 3% +$359
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $110 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $340 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $256 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $85 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 26¢ $162 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 22% -18.9%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 29% +2.9%
≤90d 133 +6.8% -3.4% 38% 26% -2.7%
all 133 +6.8% -3.4% 38% 26% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 26% -2.7%
10% -12.6% 19% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -21.0% 16% -20.5%
20% -28.8% 14% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,669.77 · official $9,669.77 (match) · 3500 history records