Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9def…6eac sports 463 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,923 (+7%) realized +$15,646 · open −$723
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%295W / 164L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$460per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$2,395est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,166
7 days+$2,166
14 days−$2,986
30 days+$2,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$13,800
other 2% −$1,752
crypto 2% −$435
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +35.4% +22.5% 60% 50% +36.1%
≤30d 196 +5.4% -4.6% 47% 46% -7.1%
≤90d 347 +15.4% +4.4% 57% 50% -3.3%
all 459 +13.8% +3.0% 64% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 44% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 39% -13.3%
15% -15.9% 38% -21.7%
20% -24.1% 34% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$630) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$391 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$15,646
Unrealized−$723
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses295 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,395
Open positions3
Markets (closed)459 / 463
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$460
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Under 49¢ 42¢ $539 $468 −$72 (-13%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $670 $404 −$266 (-40%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 14¢ $550 $165 −$385 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $862 +$1,138 +132%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $742 +$812 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $511 −$4 -1%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $215 −$210 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $406 +$410 +101%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $567 +$413 +73%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $169 +$392 +231%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$3 +8%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 25 $262 −$257 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $280 −$273 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $626 −$357 -57%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $816 −$805 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,014 +$838 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $376 +$424 +113%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $784 +$1,080 +138%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $193 +$136 +70%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $730 −$717 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,268 −$1,250 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $713 +$1,080 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $825 −$825 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $853 +$946 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $333 +$466 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $813 −$800 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $864 −$850 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $700 +$1,157 +165%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $842 −$830 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $604 +$425 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $223 +$200 +90%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $921 −$912 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $569 −$560 -98%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 13 $373 −$366 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $740 +$1,393 +188%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $643 −$630 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$492 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $653 −$640 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $355 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $503 +$446 +89%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,167 −$1,150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $868 −$850 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $864 +$1,025 +119%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $814 +$1,032 +127%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $752 −$740 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$561 +110%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$616 +121%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,141 −$1,132 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $547 38m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $559 44m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $682 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $507 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $30 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $711 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $215 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $530 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $22 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $104 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $645 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 45¢ $31 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $5 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $406 6h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $42 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 58¢ $35 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 58¢ $23 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 58¢ $104 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 58¢ $163 7h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 58¢ $186 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.22 · official $1,036.22 (match) · 3500 history records