Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9dee…a0f4 crypto 330 markets active 1h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,440 (-19%) realized −$6,432 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%126W / 200L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$1,459
14 days−$1,953
30 days−$1,953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$4,783
other 11% −$1,306
sports 8% −$654
world 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -51.8%
≤30d 16 -42.1% -47.6% 31% 31% -57.7%
≤90d 16 -42.1% -47.6% 31% 31% -57.7%
all 326 -18.2% -26.0% 39% 37% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 37% -28.2%
10% -33.1% 34% -35.1%
15% -39.5% 32% -41.3%
20% -45.5% 26% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$85 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized−$6,432
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses126 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions4
Markets (closed)326 / 330
History coverage390d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $110 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $137 +$81 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$30 -29%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $111 −$109 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$68 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,135 −$1,112 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,088 −$315 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $22 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $267 −$267 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 22 $75 −$74 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 22 $40 +$83 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 22 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 13 $34 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 13 $39 +$34 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 13 $37 +$41 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 13 $35 +$52 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 13 $20 +$25 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 13 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 13 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 13 $5 +$11 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 13 $55 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 13 $114 −$113 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 13 $163 −$135 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 13 $50 +$51 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 13 $47 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 13 $50 +$49 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 13 $164 −$63 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 13 $34 −$23 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 13 $89 −$55 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 13 $111 +$35 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 13 $113 −$13 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $217 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $33 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $74 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 55m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $570 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $502 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $746 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $390 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $344 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $732 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $743 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $44 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $55 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $158 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.17 · official $442.17 (match) · 710 history records