Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dee…a028 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 24% $0
politics 9% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.3%
all 40 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage480d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 +8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $38 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 27 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 26 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 24 $33 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $16 $0 -1%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 02 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $16 $0 +2%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 20 $16 +$1 +9%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Mar 02 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $41 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $41 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $41 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $24 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $13 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $38 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records