Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9ded…6188 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% $0
sports 37% $0
crypto 11% −$1
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.9% -25.8% 56% 44% -17.1%
≤30d 9 -17.9% -25.8% 56% 44% -17.1%
≤90d 9 -17.9% -25.8% 56% 44% -17.1%
all 9 -17.9% -25.8% 56% 44% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 44% -17.1%
10% -32.9% 44% -25.0%
15% -39.3% 33% -32.3%
20% -45.3% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $4 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $1 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 40h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 22 history records