Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9deb…4c9e crypto 161 markets active 24h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$14 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate80%118W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day138.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$53
other 8% −$14
sports 5% +$10
world 2% −$8
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -2.8% -12.1% 80% 11% -12.9%
≤30d 148 -2.8% -12.1% 80% 11% -12.9%
≤90d 148 -2.8% -12.1% 80% 11% -12.9%
all 148 -2.8% -12.1% 80% 11% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 11% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 3% -21.3%
15% -28.2% 2% -28.9%
20% -35.2% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses118 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)148 / 161
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day138.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 70¢ 71¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 77¢ 72¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 90¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 25h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.56 · official $135.50 (match) · 571 history records