Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9de9…ee25 crypto 615 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,827 (-7%) realized −$3,750 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%267W / 340L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 264d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$4,444
sports 34% −$692
other 6% −$830
politics 0% −$27
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.9% -25.7% 33% 31% -17.3%
≤30d 291 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 35% -14.8%
≤90d 546 -13.3% -21.5% 44% 35% -21.4%
all 607 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 35% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 35% -19.5%
10% -27.8% 29% -27.2%
15% -34.8% 21% -34.3%
20% -41.2% 16% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$45 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$3,750
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses267 / 340
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions1
Markets (closed)607 / 615
History coverage264d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 607 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $267 $190 −$77 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $181 +$89 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $181 +$94 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $157 +$70 +45%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France Jun 16 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$49 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$45 +75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 −$12 -20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$3 -7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +35%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 −$61 -52%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $194 −$37 -19%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $438 −$47 -11%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $113 −$14 -12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $25 −$24 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $88 −$86 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 09 $454 −$27 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $119 +$27 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $32 +$5 +16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $70 −$38 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$64 +62%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $129 −$21 -16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $80 −$20 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $48 +$32 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $270 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $270 51m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $181 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $64 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.89 · official $194.06 · 2908 history records