Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9D 0x9de8…acc9 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$75 (+11%) realized +$78 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%42W / 17L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$48
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$21
sports 32% +$41
crypto 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +14.9% +4.0% 69% 67% -1.8%
≤30d 59 +21.5% +9.9% 71% 68% +0.7%
≤90d 59 +21.5% +9.9% 71% 68% +0.7%
all 59 +21.5% +9.9% 71% 68% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 68% +0.7%
10% -0.6% 58% -8.9%
15% -10.2% 49% -17.7%
20% -19.0% 36% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses42 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 67¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$8 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$5 +34%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$9 +57%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 +$8 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 −$3 -9%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $15 +$3 +21%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$15 -48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$1 +9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $14 −$9 -61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $14 −$5 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$6 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$13 +262%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 67¢ $25 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $15 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 22¢ $5 12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 25h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $15 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $15 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $25 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 34h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $15 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 36h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $15 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 25¢ $6 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.99 · official $71.99 (match) · 117 history records