Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9de7…73a5 other 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized +$390 · open −$443
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%38W / 74L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$25
14 days−$315
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$170
other 30% −$799
world 23% +$1,006
politics 2% −$3
finance 1% −$129
culture 1% −$25
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$35
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -30.3% -36.9% 39% 28% -11.4%
≤30d 45 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 38% -12.1%
≤90d 94 -32.8% -39.2% 28% 22% -9.3%
all 112 -26.4% -33.4% 34% 25% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 25% -8.1%
10% -39.8% 20% -16.9%
15% -45.6% 13% -25.0%
20% -51.0% 11% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$41 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized+$390
Unrealized−$443
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses38 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions6
Markets (closed)112 / 119
History coverage141d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 60¢ 26¢ $500 $213 −$287 (-57%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance Ecuador 39¢ 38¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 16¢ $200 $56 −$144 (-72%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Yes 31¢ 17¢ $31 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 30 $20 −$5 -25%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Jun 30 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 +$13 +61%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$20 -40%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $50 −$2 -3%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $501 +$37 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$14 +67%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $308 +$61 +20%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $151 −$119 -79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $130 +$51 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $47 +$31 +67%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$59 -58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$144 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $161 +$53 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$47 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 14 $141 +$38 +27%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,007 +$299 +30%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$13 +55%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $512 −$154 -30%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$39 -78%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $300 −$41 -14%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,000 +$196 +20%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $200 −$190 -95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 18 $500 −$12 -2%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $1,000 −$27 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 9? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on April 9? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 2m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Morocco 42¢ $72 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 15¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $31 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 12h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 12h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 12h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance BUY Ecuador 39¢ $71 12h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 40¢ $71 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 27¢ $31 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 67¢ $49 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $50 31h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 98¢ $539 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $501 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 25¢ $11 5d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 29¢ $11 5d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 12¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $34 5d
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.01 · official $558.14 (match) · 283 history records