Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9de7…745a sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$839 (+52%) realized +$856 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +89% what you keep after slip
Net edge+89%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$772
other 23% +$343
world 18% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+97.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +117.7% +97.0% 57% 57% +44.6%
≤30d 23 +117.7% +97.0% 57% 57% +44.6%
≤90d 23 +117.7% +97.0% 57% 57% +44.6%
all 23 +117.7% +97.0% 57% 57% +44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +97.0% 57% +44.6%
10% +78.1% 57% +30.7%
15% +60.9% 57% +18.1%
20% +45.1% 48% +6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +225% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$59 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$856
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $155 $153 −$2 (-1%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $63 $47 −$16 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $79 −$77 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $204 +$322 +158%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$17 -80%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$332 +325%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$110 +216%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$100 +244%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$36 -71%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $45 +$68 +152%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$46 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$10 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$78 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$137 +1668%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $299 −$299 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $157 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar $23 12h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 21¢ $56 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $51 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $21 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $526 33h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $204 34h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 36h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 61¢ $141 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 17¢ $41 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $113 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $45 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $28 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $64 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.67 · official $200.67 (match) · 44 history records