Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9de6…31c5 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$154
sports 27% −$214
crypto 3% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.7% +3.8% 53% 53% -10.8%
≤30d 34 +14.7% +3.8% 53% 53% -10.8%
≤90d 34 +14.7% +3.8% 53% 53% -10.8%
all 34 +14.7% +3.8% 53% 53% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.8% 53% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 53% -19.4%
15% -15.2% 47% -27.2%
20% -23.5% 35% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $128 +$89 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $90 −$89 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +57%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$44 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$14 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$25 +55%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$8 -79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $42 +$10 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $65 −$61 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$12 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$80 +81%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $276 +$133 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$53 -73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$41 +801%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $80 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 6h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 14h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 14h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 27h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 27h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.86 · official $129.77 (match) · 125 history records