Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9de6…c2cf world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$7
other 18% +$1
politics 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 9% -12.0%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 9% -12.0%
all 29 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -10.6%
10% -17.7% 3% -19.2%
15% -25.6% 3% -27.0%
20% -32.9% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 −$1 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $31 −$9 -28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $15 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 13 $11 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $5 $0 -2%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $26 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 9¢ $4 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 12¢ $2 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 12¢ $3 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $21 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $26 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $12 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $14 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $25 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $22 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.15 · official $26.16 (match) · 82 history records