Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9ddf…2c83 world 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$18,519 (+11%) realized +$18,189 · open +$330
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate44%67W / 84L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day171.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,171
7 days+$12,501
14 days+$18,494
30 days+$21,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$17,058
politics 4% +$5,935
sports 2% −$117
crypto 1% +$280
finance 1% +$103
other 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +11.1% +0.5% 43% 26% +3.1%
≤30d 151 +26.5% +14.4% 44% 30% +5.9%
≤90d 151 +26.5% +14.4% 44% 30% +5.9%
all 151 +26.5% +14.4% 44% 30% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.4% 30% +5.9%
10% +3.5% 25% -4.2%
15% ← realistic here -6.5% 19% -13.5%
20% -15.7% 15% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$598) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$421 vs −$76 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5,572
Realized+$18,189
Unrealized+$330
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses67 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions16
Markets (closed)151 / 135
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day171.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $2,651 $2,786 +$136 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $701 $769 +$68 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $695 $721 +$26 (+4%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $277 $312 +$35 (+13%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 39¢ $96 $246 +$150 (+156%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $154 $145 −$9 (-6%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 69¢ $73 $112 +$40 (+54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $73 $96 +$22 (+31%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $133 $71 −$62 (-47%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $71 $63 −$8 (-11%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $29 $40 +$11 (+40%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 8¢ 13¢ $23 $37 +$14 (+59%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $55 $23 −$32 (-58%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+59%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $21 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 17 $0 −$22 -58018%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$16 -132%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +655%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 17 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $10 −$23 -229%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 17 $12 −$97 -838%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 24, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? Jun 17 $1 −$28 -2817%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 17 $82 −$143 -175%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $1,068 −$118 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3,642 −$794 -22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,190 +$120 +10%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3,321 +$270 +8%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $223 +$387 +173%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $242 −$10 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$18 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $54 +$16 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $148 −$28 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5,396 +$2,393 +44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $3,182 +$554 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 +$479 +396%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $6,874 +$127 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $7,205 +$353 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$7 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $458 −$63 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 34m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 36m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 56¢ $148 48m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 54¢ $126 48m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 54¢ $0 48m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 57¢ $93 50m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 55¢ $54 50m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 53¢ $158 50m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $160 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $97 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $65 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $81 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $706 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $161 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 7¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 7¢ $34 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 98¢ $617 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 64¢ $320 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $148 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,571.83 · official $5,572.03 (match) · 3500 history records