Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9ddd…5ca4 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,836 (+74%) realized +$3,852 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%16W / 64L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days−$209
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$4,092
crypto 4% −$91
other 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.2% -40.5% 17% 17% -2.3%
≤30d 17 +123.3% +102.1% 18% 18% +49.6%
≤90d 70 +10.9% +0.3% 20% 19% -12.2%
all 80 +21.6% +10.1% 20% 19% +79.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 19% +79.0%
10% -0.5% 19% +61.8%
15% -10.1% 18% +46.2%
20% -18.9% 15% +31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$40 · ×10.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$3,852
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses16 / 64
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage108d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $202 $197 −$5 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $110 $127 +$17 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes $29 $2 −$28 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$92 +168%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $246 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -49%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $134 −$98 -73%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $135 −$134 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $93 −$84 -90%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $481 −$378 -79%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $55 +$702 +1280%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $50 +$911 +1822%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 25 $17 −$11 -64%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $40 −$39 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $40 −$36 -90%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 23 $71 −$3 -4%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 23 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $10 −$5 -54%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $90 +$6 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 16 $38 −$6 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 14 $40 −$8 -19%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $17 −$5 -28%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 13 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 13 $51 −$39 -78%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $8 −$1 -17%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 11 $15 +$38 +257%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $25 −$21 -85%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $70 −$52 -74%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $16 +$76 +462%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $11 +$5 +46%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $393 −$387 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 04 $5 +$6 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 04 $12 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -40%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $74 −$73 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $12 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $110 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $10 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $100 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $9 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $20 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $25 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $45 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $18 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $20 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $25 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $17 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $18 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes $25 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.08 · official $439.08 (match) · 408 history records