Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9ddc…f21c crypto 321 markets active 0h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,451 (-9%) realized −$13,398 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%155W / 152L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$9,934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$616
7 days−$314
14 days−$314
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 58% −$9,622
other 25% −$4,335
politics 9% +$901
sports 4% −$1,177
crypto 3% −$189
world 1% +$587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 177 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 50% -16.0%
≤90d 177 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 50% -16.0%
all 307 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 48% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 48% -18.0%
10% -26.8% 47% -25.9%
15% -33.9% 45% -33.0%
20% -40.3% 39% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$200 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$9,934
Realized−$13,398
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses155 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)307 / 321
History coverage611d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $9,500 $9,438 −$62 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $94 $122 +$28 (+30%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 57¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 65¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 49¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $286 −$277 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $133 −$129 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $199 +$78 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$10 +86%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $136 +$113 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $81 +$44 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $313 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $286 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $75 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $20 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $55 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $10 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $9,614 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,933.53 · official $9,933.06 (match) · 741 history records