Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dd9…08bd politics 432 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,517 (+120%) realized +$33,079 · open +$2,438
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%201W / 169L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$66,496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$2,626
sports 19% −$688
economics 3% −$468
politics 3% +$668
crypto 1% −$557
culture 1% −$31
tech 0% +$108
finance 0% +$81
world 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +100.5% +81.4% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 17 +93.5% +75.1% 88% 82% +169.9%
≤90d 370 +41.9% +28.4% 54% 45% -12.8%
all 370 +41.9% +28.4% 54% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.4% 45% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here +16.1% 38% -21.2%
15% +4.9% 30% -28.8%
20% -5.4% 25% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$57 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$66,496
Realized+$33,079
Unrealized+$2,438
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses201 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions500
Markets (closed)370 / 432
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 64¢ 94¢ $1,336 $1,952 +$616 (+46%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No 69¢ 87¢ $1,244 $1,569 +$325 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $872 $958 +$86 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $862 $896 +$34 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 38¢ $642 $876 +$234 (+36%)
Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No 72¢ 98¢ $601 $812 +$211 (+35%)
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 56¢ 99¢ $449 $790 +$342 (+76%)
Celonis IPO before 2027? No 64¢ 87¢ $526 $713 +$188 (+36%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $611 $680 +$70 (+11%)
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $733 $647 −$86 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 50¢ $474 $637 +$163 (+34%)
Will the Republican Party win the SC-04 House seat? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $584 $605 +$22 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $515 $537 +$23 (+4%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 45¢ 90¢ $265 $527 +$263 (+99%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $472 $518 +$45 (+10%)
Will there be between 90m and 95m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections? No 94¢ 96¢ $501 $513 +$12 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-17 House seat? No 76¢ 97¢ $394 $508 +$114 (+29%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 34¢ 78¢ $216 $496 +$281 (+130%)
Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat? No 92¢ 94¢ $457 $467 +$9 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? Yes 61¢ 69¢ $408 $466 +$58 (+14%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $383 $464 +$80 (+21%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 69¢ 74¢ $417 $448 +$32 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 72¢ 70¢ $454 $444 −$9 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? No 90¢ 86¢ $444 $425 −$19 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat? No 88¢ 86¢ $420 $410 −$10 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $24 +$26 +106%
Will Jasmeet Bains advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Thien Ho advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 05 $12 +$3 +28%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$4 -35%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 02 $71 −$47 -66%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $16 +$56 +361%
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +103%
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? May 31 $19 +$31 +166%
Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 3 May 27 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $306 +$1,243 +406%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? May 21 $94 +$29 +31%
Will Krista Penn be the Republican nominee for GA-01? May 20 $5 $0 +9%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? May 19 $139 +$222 +159%
Will "Obsession" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? May 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 11 - May 17 be between May 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? May 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 15 $19 −$12 -64%
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? May 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-16? May 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) May 13 $10 +$8 +80%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. May 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 12 $39 −$3 -7%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? May 12 $385 +$5 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April? May 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April? May 12 $73 +$5 +7%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April? May 12 $187 +$38 +20%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April? May 12 $163 +$13 +8%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? May 12 $205 +$7 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April? May 12 $217 +$20 +9%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? May 12 $289 +$48 +16%
Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April? May 12 $284 +$17 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April? May 12 $287 +$80 +28%
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April? May 12 $828 +$33 +4%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April? May 12 $902 +$62 +7%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April? May 12 $814 +$294 +36%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April? May 12 $829 +$390 +47%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April? May 12 $1,847 −$1,837 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomat May 11 $27 +$1 +6%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? May 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? May 10 $6 −$5 -79%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April? May 09 $2,389 −$2,389 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 09 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nom May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 08 $9 +$11 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 1h
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? SELL Yes 72¢ $15 2h
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? SELL Yes 75¢ $37 2h
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 2h
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? SELL Yes 75¢ $44 2h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $0 20h
Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? SELL Yes 77¢ $9 22h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $9 29h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $7 29h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 29h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 30h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 30h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? SELL Yes 83¢ $18 32h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $1 32h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $5 32h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $6 33h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $7 33h
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el SELL No 95¢ $0 33h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 34h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 2d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections i SELL No 32¢ $8 2d
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,495.71 · official $66,567.43 (match) · 3500 history records