Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9dd9…920e weather 447 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+3%) realized +$233 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate91%397W / 40L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$199
14 days+$239
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% −$25
world 33% +$36
other 23% +$249
sports 7% −$1
politics 3% −$63
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% +$7
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +35.8% +22.9% 76% 72% +13.2%
≤30d 104 +9.9% -0.5% 88% 32% +5.4%
≤90d 222 +5.8% -4.3% 93% 21% +1.3%
all 437 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 14% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 14% -6.5%
10% -18.0% 7% -15.4%
15% -25.9% 5% -23.6%
20% -33.2% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$233
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses397 / 40
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)437 / 447
History coverage147d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$46 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 +$6 +146%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $18 +$14 +76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 +$72 +55%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $44 +$11 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $14 +$7 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 +$61 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$9 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$25 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$13 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $18 +$3 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $18 +$2 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 85¢ $30 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 31¢ $10 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 56¢ $18 15h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 15h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 87¢ $20 15h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $20 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $20 4d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 79¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $30 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $30 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.03 · official $252.03 (match) · 875 history records