trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +8.4% | -1.9% | 100% | 0% | -1.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -37.6% | -43.5% | 40% | 20% | +43.0% |
| all | 23 | -25.4% | -32.5% | 30% | 26% | -52.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.5% | 26% | -52.2% |
| 10% | -39.0% | 26% | -56.8% |
| 15% | -44.9% | 26% | -61.0% |
| 20% | -50.3% | 22% | -64.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 91¢ | 91¢ | $2,033 | $2,036 | +$2 (+0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $765 | $783 | +$18 (+2%) |
| Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | $652 | $665 | +$13 (+2%) |
| Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | No | 60¢ | 66¢ | $314 | $349 | +$34 (+11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? | May 28 | $92 | +$8 | +8% |
| Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce | May 09 | $216 | +$224 | +104% |
| Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 05 | $8 | −$7 | -95% |
| Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? | May 05 | $9 | −$9 | -97% |
| Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | May 05 | $18 | −$17 | -96% |
| Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? | May 02 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | May 02 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | May 02 | $20 | +$96 | +482% |
| Mavericks vs. 76ers | Feb 09 | $30 | +$18 | +61% |
| Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | Feb 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30? | Feb 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Feb 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? | Feb 04 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30? | Feb 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Jumper airdrop in 2024? | Feb 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | Feb 04 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | Feb 04 | $30 | +$73 | +245% |
| Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Dec 21 | $10 | +$7 | +68% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? | Dec 19 | $50 | +$23 | +46% |
| Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? | Dec 19 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-25? | Dec 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Solana above $245 on December 6? | Dec 07 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Nov 12 | $940 | −$940 | -100% |