Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9dd7…ac41 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$734 (-13%) realized −$802 · open +$68
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$3,833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$24
politics 17% −$933
sports 4% +$242
culture 3% −$47
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 0% -1.9%
≤90d 5 -37.6% -43.5% 40% 20% +43.0%
all 23 -25.4% -32.5% 30% 26% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 26% -52.2%
10% -39.0% 26% -56.8%
15% -44.9% 26% -61.0%
20% -50.3% 22% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$78 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$3,833
Realized−$802
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage626d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $2,033 $2,036 +$2 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $765 $783 +$18 (+2%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $652 $665 +$13 (+2%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 60¢ 66¢ $314 $349 +$34 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 28 $92 +$8 +8%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 09 $216 +$224 +104%
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 05 $8 −$7 -95%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 05 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 05 $18 −$17 -96%
Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? May 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? May 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? May 02 $20 +$96 +482%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 09 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Jumper airdrop in 2024? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? Feb 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? Feb 04 $30 +$73 +245%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Dec 21 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Dec 19 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? Dec 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-25? Dec 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana above $245 on December 6? Dec 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 12 $940 −$940 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $218 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $345 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $1,477 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $13 5h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $47 5h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $34 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $8 10h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $445 12h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $207 19h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $214 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $767 28d
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? SELL No 100¢ $100 28d
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? BUY No 92¢ $92 31d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 49¢ $53 48d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 49¢ $96 48d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 49¢ $19 48d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 49¢ $16 48d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 49¢ $32 48d
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes $8 51d
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 36¢ $9 51d
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 19¢ $18 51d
Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? BUY No 25¢ $28 481d
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? BUY No 37¢ $45 501d
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 501d
Mavericks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 62¢ $30 506d
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? BUY No 83¢ $70 532d
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? BUY No 29¢ $30 532d
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 543d
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 543d
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 551d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,832.94 · official $3,832.94 (match) · 89 history records