Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dd3…b441 weather 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$288 (-3%) realized −$266 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate90%373W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$27
14 days−$119
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$160
sports 1% −$100
other 1% −$31
tech 0% −$10
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +0.4% -9.1% 93% 12% -7.2%
≤30d 370 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 416 -4.9% -14.0% 90% 7% -12.4%
all 416 -4.9% -14.0% 90% 7% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 7% -12.4%
10% -22.2% 2% -20.8%
15% -29.7% 1% -28.4%
20% -36.6% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses373 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions45
Markets (closed)416 / 461
History coverage49d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 97¢ 94¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? No 79¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 96¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? No 95¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? No 68¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? No 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 88¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 2m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $7 56m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $7 56m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $9 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.66 · official $400.77 (match) · 975 history records