Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9D 0x9dd1…ec0e crypto 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,647 (-11%) realized −$5,747 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%86W / 138L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,151
7 days−$3,151
14 days−$3,151
30 days−$3,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$5,582
other 27% +$49
sports 18% −$77
world 1% −$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +35.2% +22.3% 25% 25% -59.0%
≤30d 8 +35.2% +22.3% 25% 25% -59.0%
≤90d 8 +35.2% +22.3% 25% 25% -59.0%
all 224 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 36% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 36% -20.4%
10% -25.9% 32% -28.0%
15% -33.0% 29% -35.0%
20% -39.6% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$179 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized−$5,747
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses86 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 228
History coverage137d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $243 $340 +$97 (+40%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $78 −$77 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Jun 26 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Jun 26 $5,102 −$3,541 -69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $90 +$103 +114%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $103 +$757 +737%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $500 +$346 +69%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $500 +$169 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $1,977 +$1,227 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 24 $478 −$478 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 24 $380 +$325 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 24 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 24 $340 +$142 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 24 $400 −$121 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 24 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 24 $500 −$74 -15%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Feb 24 $469 −$197 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 24 $300 −$252 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 24 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 24 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half BUY 33¢ $99 24m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $78 1h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 25¢ $100 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 25h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) SELL Senegal 96¢ $859 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $90 28h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Senegal 11¢ $103 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $249 12d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $709 121d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 121d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $535 121d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $252 121d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $846 121d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? SELL Yes 91¢ $669 121d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 68¢ $500 121d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 52¢ $500 121d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,000 121d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,012 122d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,012 122d
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $191 122d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $191 122d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,977 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $227 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $478 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $705 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $380 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $208 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.58 · official $539.24 · 627 history records