Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dcb…0ceb other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$884 (-25%) realized −$658 · open −$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$813
7 days−$57
14 days−$74
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$459
world 37% −$471
sports 12% −$314
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.0% -32.1% 27% 27% -11.3%
≤30d 16 -48.4% -53.3% 19% 19% -12.8%
≤90d 16 -48.4% -53.3% 19% 19% -12.8%
all 16 -48.4% -53.3% 19% 19% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 19% -12.8%
10% -57.8% 19% -21.1%
15% -61.9% 19% -28.8%
20% -65.6% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$93 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$658
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage16d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 38¢ $500 $274 −$226 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $306 +$527 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$320 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $243 −$240 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $291 +$257 +88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $315 −$310 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $1,305 −$445 -34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 57 million views on day 5? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $353 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $51 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 25¢ $102 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $306 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $624 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $243 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL 94¢ $548 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $291 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $315 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $315 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $215 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $540 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $545 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $400 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 5d
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 3¢ $1 10d
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 3¢ $1 10d
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 3¢ $4 10d
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 3¢ $1 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $10 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.17 · official $288.80 · 38 history records