Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9dc5…58fb other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$777 (+10%) realized +$860 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%43W / 99L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$268
14 days+$268
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$701
other 19% +$47
crypto 16% +$310
sports 4% −$130
politics 3% −$157
economics 1% −$18
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 40% +4.8%
≤30d 40 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 40% +4.8%
≤90d 43 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 40% -3.2%
all 142 -19.7% -27.4% 30% 29% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 29% +3.5%
10% -34.3% 27% -6.4%
15% -40.7% 23% -15.4%
20% -46.5% 18% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$22 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized+$860
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses43 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)142 / 165
History coverage236d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No 47¢ 33¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $60 $23 −$37 (-62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $227 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$145 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$31 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $94 +$66 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Mexico to score first vs. Korea Rep Jun 19 $8 +$8 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $112 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$295 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$129 +810%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +42%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $46 +$14 +29%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $20 +$53 +265%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 +$117 +1172%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $50 +$78 +156%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $94 +$68 +72%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$170 +85%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $387 +$548 +141%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY No 47¢ $100 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.09 · official $623.09 (match) · 474 history records