Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9dc5…f1b9 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$653 (+27%) realized +$561 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$626
other 14% −$1
sports 4% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +22.5% +10.9% 54% 50% +18.0%
≤30d 28 +22.5% +10.9% 54% 50% +18.0%
≤90d 28 +22.5% +10.9% 54% 50% +18.0%
all 28 +22.5% +10.9% 54% 50% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 50% +18.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.3% 50% +6.7%
15% -9.4% 46% -3.6%
20% -18.3% 39% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$43 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 55¢ 92¢ $100 $166 +$66 (+66%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 40¢ 51¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $145 +$58 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $126 +$338 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $163 +$127 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$46 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $187 −$60 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $109 +$142 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $134 +$60 +45%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $112 −$64 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $82 +$46 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$131 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $62 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$45 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $130 −$58 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $120 +$96 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$7 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 15m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 16m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 41¢ $99 17m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $102 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $203 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $66 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $19 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $145 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $126 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $163 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $30 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $42 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $90 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $33 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $124 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $148 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $46 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $56 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.98 · official $429.06 · 124 history records